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August 28, 2025
Federal Pay Raise 2026: President Trump is expected to issue alternative pay plan letter
Will There Be a Federal Pay Raise in 2026?
Federal employees are awaiting clarity on the federal pay raise 2026, and as of now, the outlook is uncertain. President Trump is expected to issue his annual alternative pay plan letter before the end of August. Based on current expectations, it is widely believed he will propose no raise for federal employees in 2026.
The reasoning is simple: the White House’s 2026 budget proposal did not include any pay raise for civilian federal employees. However, it did propose a 3.8% raise for the military. If the administration had intended to extend a raise to the broader federal workforce, it most likely would have been included in the budget plan.
This raises a key question for many: Is the 2026 federal employee pay raise off the table? Let’s take a closer look.
Why August Matters: The Role of the Alternative Pay Plan Letter
The reason August is so significant is due to FEPCA the Federal Employees Pay Comparability Act. Under FEPCA, General Schedule (GS) federal employees are supposed to receive an annual pay adjustment that includes:
- An across-the-board increase, and
- A locality pay adjustment, based on where employees live and work.
The law also set a formula to calculate these raises automatically. However, history shows that the FEPCA formula is rarely followed. In fact, federal employees often hear claims such as: “If FEPCA were applied, we’d get a 25% pay raise.” While technically correct under the formula, such raises have never been implemented and are not realistic for 2026 either.
Instead, the president can bypass the FEPCA formula by issuing an alternative pay plan a move used frequently by past administrations. The letter is almost always released in late August, and it typically sets the actual raise amount for the coming year if Congress does not act.
President Trump’s Track Record on Pay Raises
To better understand what could happen with the 2026 federal employee pay raise, it’s useful to review President Trump’s past proposals:
As history shows, even when Trump initially proposed freezes or lower raises, circumstances or congressional action sometimes resulted in higher final numbers.
This history leaves open the possibility that despite current expectations, there could still be a shift in the final federal pay raise 2026 Trump announcement.
What Could Happen Next?
While many believe that the 2026 federal employee pay raise will be set at zero, there are a few potential outcomes:
- Trump Sticks to No Raise – If his alternative pay plan proposes a freeze and Congress does not intervene, employees will see no pay increase in 2026.
- Congress Overrides – As seen in 2019, Congress can override a presidential proposal. Earlier this year, a bill was introduced suggesting a 4.3% federal pay raise, though it has failed to gain traction in prior years.
- Unexpected Reversal – Similar to 2020, Trump could reverse course at the last minute and propose a modest raise.
Inclusion in Appropriations Bill – In some cases, Congress slips pay raises into massive year-end spending bills, which are considered “must pass” to avoid a shutdown. This remains a possibility for 2026.
Key Takeaways for Federal Employees
- The federal pay raise 2026 remains uncertain. Current signals point to no raise, but history shows surprises are possible.
- FEPCA is unlikely to be followed. Federal workers should not expect the automatic formula raises.
- Congress still has power. Legislative action could change the outcome, though political conditions make it less likely.
Trump’s past proposals varied. He has shifted positions before, so a change is not impossible.
Final Thoughts
Federal employees should prepare for the possibility that the 2026 federal pay raise may not materialise, especially given President Trump’s current stance and the lack of mention in the budget. However, nothing is final until the alternative pay plan letter is issued in late August, and Congress always has the option to intervene.
Whether you’re planning your budget for next year or considering long-term retirement planning, staying informed is essential. The only certainty for now is that federal workers will need to watch closely as events unfold in the coming weeks.
FAQ'S
Will federal employees get a 2026 pay raise?
As of now, President Trump is expected to block an automatic 2026 federal employee pay raise. Instead, an alternative pay plan is likely to be set that prevents a large across-the-board increase. Congress could still override this decision in appropriations, but no raise is guaranteed at this time.
What is the DOD pay increase for 2026?
The Department of Defense (DOD) has proposed a 3.8% pay raise for military service members in 2026. This raise is separate from civilian federal employee pay, which is expected to remain frozen unless Congress takes further action.
Can you go higher than GS-15?
Yes, federal employees can go higher than GS-15. Positions above GS-15 are part of the Senior Executive Service (SES), senior-level (SL), or scientific/professional (ST) pay systems. These roles are reserved for top executives, managers, and specialists.
What is the GS level?
The GS level, or General Schedule level, is the federal government’s main pay scale for white-collar civilian employees. It ranges from GS-1 (entry-level) to GS-15 (top level before SES), with each grade reflecting the difficulty, responsibility, and qualifications required for the position.
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